Macro Fundamental Economic View:

The latest gross domestic product (GDP) numbers show that the Indian economy grew at an impressive rate of 8.2% in the April-June quarter the fastest quarterly growth in over two years.
The falling rupee, worsening current account deficit and stress in the banking sector have all raised questions over the sustainability of the recent economic recovery.
16 high-frequency indicators to assess the health of the Indian economy in a monthly macroeconomic tracker. The 16 indicators capture trends across four aspects of the economy: consumer spending, industrial activity, external vulnerability and “ease of living” (which measures inflation and the jobs scenario).
In recent months, all four indicators of industrial sector activity—Purchasing Managers’ Index, core infrastructure industries’ growth, bank lending and rail freight volume—have improved. All the four industrial indicators have performed better or in line with the long-term five-year trend.

Despite positive signs in industry, indicators of external sector performance and ease of living suggest vulnerabilities in the Indian economy. India’s current account deficit has worsened in recent months while the rupee continues to fall. At the same time, India’s import cover of foreign exchange reserves has fallen below the five-year trend range in recent months. Import cover of reserves is an indicator of foreign exchange reserve adequacy and measures how long imports can be sustained in the event of a shock

Meanwhile, the global “trade war” poses further risks to India’s exports. India’s trade deficit, even non-oil, has massively widened in the last couple of years and the share of exports in GDP has declined sharply. Three of the consumer economy indicators are in the red (below the five-year average) and investment spending remains muted despite a recent pick up. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), a measure of investment in the economy, amounted to 31.6% of GDP in the June quarter, down from 34.3% of GDP in 2012. Looking ahead, the GFCF-to-GDP ratio is unlikely to reach those levels even by 2022-23, by when the investment rate will likely peak at 33%, according to a recent Reserve Bank of India (RBI) research paper.

The non-banking financial sector is also in crisis, facing a credit crunch following a string of defaults by Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services Ltd (IL&FS). Such stress in the financial sector can hamper the functioning of rest of the economy.Meanwhile, the rural economy has continued to under perform. Rural wage growth has remained subdued for much of the tenure of the Narendra Modi government, while other data point towards worsening terms of trade for farmers.
 

Thus, financial market volatility, uncertainties on the global front, and maintaining fiscal discipline in the run up to the elections, are the major challenges facing the Indian economy right now.In the coming months, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi heads into the final phase of his tenure, his response to these challenges could be critical to his chances for a second tenure.

Global market US Market View

There’s a similar downtrend that is taking hold in December, despite the seasonal tendency for that month to enjoy a pre-Christmas updraft, typically known as a Santa rally, with institutional investors finding the month a good time to buy looking ahead to the new year.
Here’s how the December moves have shaped up:
  • The S&P 500 has had an average daily move of negative 0.80%
  • The Dow has had average daily move of negative 0.78, as of 2:30 p.m. ET trade Friday
  • The Russell 2000 index has had an average daily move of negative 1.05%
For those equity benchmarks, that is the worst performance since that dreaded month more than 30 years ago. The U.S. economy does remain healthy, but optimism is in short supply. Some market strategists argue that a tradable bottom could be at hand.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is being universally criticized for what he had to say in the press conference after the release of the central bank’s policy statement.
  • The market wanted no rate hike or, at most, one rate hike in 2019. Powell talked about two rate hikes in 2019.
  • The market wanted some accommodation regarding the Fed’s massive balance sheet. Powell stayed firm on the current course of unwinding.
The market wanted some empathy for the decline in the stock market. Powell showed none

Indian Market Technical Analysis:

So if you concern on FII move’s this data will help you to understand the flow .Except Oct 2018 rest of months still holds the positive move.

NIFTY Vs IndiaVix 

Looks like pressure on Nifty will be intact next week between 125 to 170 pts further

NIFTY DAILY CHART Current Trend :


On the above Daily Chart : We foresee the Final Wave Y correction is over and new 2nd leg is  unfolding which can be wave 2/b understanding based on the current structure the existing wave is unfolding neutral target considering equality of wave a / wave d should end near 10530 to 10550 range .

On last update weekly chart we tried finding out the Fib time cycle and Fib Fan Analysis which normally assist to understand the better trend reversal with support and resistant move.
Marked in Yellow Line is an fib Fan Suggest the market is taking Good level of Support in the current range and Red Dashed line suggest the time cycle which is expected to get close by this week or coming week later .

NIFTY MONTHLY Current CHART


We are following the continuation of previous report as it is still intact. We are currently into the higher degree Wave 3 (V) which remains to the forming Expanding triangle. If an expanding Triangle is forming since early march, wave-d has done most of the price damage it is allowed. Therefore, under this count, wave-d would have to drift sideways-or-up for 2-3 weeks before concluding wave-d at a higher low in November (see green-dashed line on the EXPANDING chart). Once wave-d looks like almost over, the NIFTY final “mania” phase would begin, pushing it above 12000 levels. After tremendous public excitement and historic all-time new highs, a powerful, protracted, 2-4 year bear market should begin in 2019.
The bull market is nearing its end, and a new panic is approaching in 2019, unlike anything you might expect. . Bull markets end when everyone is invested… and there’s no one left to buy. And that’s precisely why they end… because with no one left to buy, prices have nowhere to go but down. A “violent rotation” is taking place.
More and more investors are waking up and plowing their money into the stock market.
The mainstream media — the same folks who told you “Trump can’t possibly win” and then “if he wins the markets will crash” — they’ve been proven dead wrong.
Since the election, stocks have soared.
So if you’re still afraid… haunted by the ghosts of 2008 — you are not alone… but once again, the masses are wrong and you must act fast, or you’re going to miss out. We are in the final stages of a massive bull market. And the BIGGEST gains lie ahead.
We would appreciate you to be into our FREE Financial Group for the Financial market update time to time . If you like the report kindly comment this shall help our team to update best to your service .
 
  

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